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onclick="ad0.style.fontSize='12px';">縮小字體</a>】</div> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="title0">誰是股市陰跌"主兇"？散戶基金QFII保險(xiǎn)皆非禍?zhǔn)?/div> <hr/> <div>2008年05月28日 09:01 來源：人民網(wǎng)-國(guó)際金融報(bào) <span id="49c1n6wlf" class="style3"><a target="_blank"><img border="0" height="14" src="/fileftp/2007/12/2007-12-13/U31P4T47D7993F967DT20071213101145.gif" width="14"/> <span id="49c1n6wlf" class="style3">發(fā)表評(píng)論 </span></a></span> </div> <hr/> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="cStyle0" id="content">  </div> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="slice"></div> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="font16Style" id="ad0"><p>　　昨日，上證綜指在中石油的尾盤拉升后終于翻紅微漲，這是大盤陰跌3個(gè)交易日以來的首次翻紅。然而，昨日中石化復(fù)牌后的大幅下挫令市場(chǎng)前景再度蒙上陰影。</p> <p>　　面對(duì)大盤的疲軟走勢(shì)，越來越多的人開始進(jìn)入一場(chǎng)“緝兇”游戲，大盤的空頭主力究竟是誰？砸盤中石油、中石化的究竟是誰？機(jī)構(gòu)們究竟將采取何種行動(dòng)？……此類問題不斷在市場(chǎng)間被傳播，各式各樣的解釋讓投資者更加彷徨。然而，目前的點(diǎn)位已經(jīng)瀕臨印花稅缺口，同時(shí)，管理層在奧運(yùn)會(huì)前維護(hù)市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定的意圖已經(jīng)非常明顯，那么在這個(gè)當(dāng)口，無論是基金、保險(xiǎn)資金是否真的有意要?dú)⒌驂簜€(gè)股呢？</p> <p>　　<strong>基金有點(diǎn)冤枉</strong><div class="49c1n6wlf" id="adhzh" name="hzh"> <table align="left" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr><td><a href="" target="_blank"> <object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=7,0,19,0" height="250" width="300"> <param name="quality" value="high"/><param name="SRC" value="http://i2.chinanews.com/gg/080528/05282.swf"/> <embed height="250" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" quality="high" src="http://i2.chinanews.com/gg/080528/05282.swf" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="300"/> </object> </a></td> </tr> </table> </div></p> <p>　　今年以來，基金似乎一直扮演著一個(gè)“大空軍”的角色，然而，在這場(chǎng)自上周初以來的連續(xù)調(diào)整中，基金卻一改常態(tài)地竭力護(hù)盤。</p> <p>　　根據(jù)相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)顯示，從交易日來看，5月19日全國(guó)哀悼日的第一天，基金全天凈買入3.3070億元。5月20日，股指大跌，當(dāng)天基金卻選擇了整體增倉(cāng)，凈買入14.1156億元，其后兩天，增倉(cāng)勢(shì)頭開始減緩，凈買入額分別只有2.4319億元、1.7686億元。上周前4個(gè)交易日內(nèi)，基金席位實(shí)現(xiàn)凈買入13.57億元。而一位熟悉基金運(yùn)作的券商FOF經(jīng)理告訴記者，“本周基金也在陸續(xù)買入，雖然買盤并不大，但能肯定的是沒有明顯拋盤動(dòng)作�！�</p> <p>　　值得一提的是，上周有媒體報(bào)道稱因在地震發(fā)生后大量拋售股票，某兩家基金公司受到管理層點(diǎn)名批評(píng)，引起市場(chǎng)一片嘩然。一位券商分析人士告訴記者，“雖然管理層并沒有明確指示這一階段基金不允許出現(xiàn)整體減倉(cāng)，但市場(chǎng)仍可以看出管理層希望維護(hù)市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定的信號(hào)。然而，不出現(xiàn)大規(guī)模建倉(cāng)跡象，并不表示基金不可以調(diào)倉(cāng)�！睌�(shù)據(jù)顯示本月19日至22日間賣出金額分別為47.6296億元、53.3399億元、76.1687億元、80.6303億元，凈賣出金額前十名單中依然有不少基金公司的身影。</p> <p>　　<strong>保險(xiǎn)“不太可能”</strong></p> <p>　　不是散戶、不是基金、也不是QFII，那么這砸盤主兇究竟是誰呢？于是不少人將矛頭指向了僅剩的機(jī)構(gòu)投資者——保險(xiǎn)資金。從大智慧軟件來看，從4月起便有不少保險(xiǎn)資金開始做空市場(chǎng)，而5月21日、5月22日兩日有資金做空能源股的跡象似乎更為明顯。</p> <p>　　根據(jù)媒體報(bào)道，5月21日中國(guó)石油被凈賣出1.5億元，隨后的中國(guó)神華出現(xiàn)0.64億元的凈賣出。5月22日，1.11億元的中煤能源和0.76億元中國(guó)石油，均成為當(dāng)天主要的做空目標(biāo)。對(duì)此，東方證券策略分析師毛楠指出，“這些股票是否都被保險(xiǎn)席位賣出仍然值得探討，但對(duì)于目前的A股市場(chǎng)，保險(xiǎn)要做空打壓的意義并不大�！�</p> <p>　　雖然無法得知近期保險(xiǎn)資金的具體操作動(dòng)態(tài)，但一位在保險(xiǎn)公司資管部工作的人士向記者透露，“我們追求長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的投資收益，短期內(nèi)沒有大規(guī)模的操作行為�！�</p> <p>　　然而，對(duì)于社保資金成為這場(chǎng)下跌主兇的可能性，毛楠認(rèn)為也不大。“社保資金一向以追求長(zhǎng)期效益為主，它也代表了國(guó)家穩(wěn)定金融市場(chǎng)的意圖，因此，在這個(gè)瀕臨印花稅缺口的點(diǎn)位殺跌大盤不太可能。”</p> <p>　　從盤面觀察，雖然4月份至5月中旬社保資金的確在賣出部分股票，但規(guī)模并不大。并且其賣出的股票也并不主在兩大石油股�！笆聦�(shí)上，中石化已經(jīng)有持續(xù)一個(gè)禮拜有凈資金流入了。”毛楠指出。</p> <p>　　<strong>博弈或是關(guān)鍵</strong></p> <p>　　那么，導(dǎo)致近日來連續(xù)殺跌的主兇究竟是誰呢？“交易者和投資者的博弈可能是導(dǎo)致近期大盤走弱的關(guān)鍵�！泵赋觯灰渍咦非蟮氖枪善钡亩唐谑找�，投資者看中的則是股票的長(zhǎng)期價(jià)值，這也是近期股市不斷出現(xiàn)殺跌的同時(shí)也不斷出現(xiàn)大力護(hù)盤的原因。</p> <p>　　近期熱點(diǎn)板塊頻頻出現(xiàn)，但細(xì)心的投資者都能發(fā)現(xiàn)，熱點(diǎn)不僅出現(xiàn)得快，消失得也快。像前階段被爆炒的水泥股，近日來則大幅受挫。這也就意味著，有“交易者”在利用消息面做短線炒作，此類資金來得快去得更快，這導(dǎo)致了大盤沒有上漲動(dòng)力，連連陰跌。</p> <p>　　然而，這個(gè)點(diǎn)位對(duì)于“投資者”來說無疑是誘人的。雖然不排除后市大盤繼續(xù)下跌，但同樣也不排除管理層再度出現(xiàn)救市舉措，畢竟資本市場(chǎng)政策的出臺(tái)往往具有突然性和不可預(yù)測(cè)性的一面。對(duì)于不少金融股、地產(chǎn)股來說，連續(xù)下跌也同樣具備了極具誘惑力的估值吸引。然而，在能源價(jià)格管制放開無期的前提下，中石油、中石化也難有企穩(wěn)跡象，這兩只權(quán)重老大不站穩(wěn)，大盤站穩(wěn)的可能性也就減半。因此，大盤在未來一段時(shí)間中仍然將是“交易者”和“投資者”之間的博弈，在這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)役未分出勝負(fù)之前，震蕩行情可能將持續(xù)圍繞在投資者身邊。(記者趙怡雯) </p></div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="partner"></div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="editor">【<font color="CC0000">編輯:</font>聞?dòng)?#26107;】</div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="guestbook"><table cellspacing="0" id="comments" style="MARGIN-TOP: 7px" width="100%"> <tbody> <tr> <td valign="top"> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="" style="CLEAR: both; MARGIN-TOP: 10px; BACKGROUND-IMAGE: url(http://comment.chinanews.com.cn/comments/images/3.gif); HEIGHT: 23px"> <div 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