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9月16日，受美國(guó)“金融危機(jī)”影響，大盤(pán)在央行“雙率”調(diào)整背景下，低開(kāi)低走。滬指跌破2000點(diǎn)關(guān)口。兩市上漲個(gè)股不足300家，成交量較前一交易日略有放大。民生銀行、深發(fā)展A、華夏銀行、交通銀行、招商銀行、浦發(fā)銀行等銀行股午后悉數(shù)跌停。中新社發(fā) 呂建設(shè) 攝</p><br> <table width=100% border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=3 class=12v><tr><td width=77%><table width=100% border=0 cellspacing=2 cellpadding=5><tr><td class=12v bgcolor=E4EEFC><font color=#FF6600><b>版權(quán)聲明:</b></font><font color=#666666>凡標(biāo)注有“cnsphoto”字樣的圖片版權(quán)均屬中國(guó)新聞網(wǎng)，未經(jīng)書(shū)面授權(quán)，不得轉(zhuǎn)載使用。</font></td></tr></table></td></tr></table> </div> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="slice"></div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="ad0" class="font16Style"><p>　　中秋假期剛過(guò),金融市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入了多事之“秋”。昨天,受外圍股市以及國(guó)內(nèi)政策的影響,A股滬指跌破2000點(diǎn)關(guān)口,創(chuàng)下股市22個(gè)月來(lái)的新低。</p> <p>　　源自美國(guó)的金融危機(jī)“秋風(fēng)秋雨”實(shí)在愁煞人。盡管上周美國(guó)政府宣布接管“兩房”的消息曾一度令市場(chǎng)為之振奮,但緊隨其后的是日前大投行雷曼兄弟的破產(chǎn)、全球最大的保險(xiǎn)公司之一美國(guó)國(guó)際集團(tuán)(AIG)申請(qǐng)過(guò)渡貸款、美林證券被美國(guó)銀行收購(gòu)。美國(guó)金融業(yè)噩耗不斷,全球性動(dòng)蕩逐步放大,由美國(guó)金融業(yè)帶來(lái)的全球危機(jī)似乎還遠(yuǎn)未結(jié)束。</p> <p>　　而前天中國(guó)央行宣布下調(diào)“兩率”,既為秋天的股市送來(lái)了“火”,也帶來(lái)了“冰”。部分銀行貸款利率下調(diào)、存款準(zhǔn)備金率下降,貸款成本減少、銀根放松對(duì)企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)帶來(lái)了“福音”；也因?yàn)椤皟陕省钡南陆?銀行盈利壓力驟然增大,直接反映在股市上,就是銀行股成為大盤(pán)下穿2000點(diǎn)的“罪魁禍?zhǔn)住薄? </p> <p>　　自從去年10月滬指創(chuàng)下最高點(diǎn)位6124.04點(diǎn),跌至昨天最低的1974.39點(diǎn),歷時(shí)11個(gè)月,最大跌幅高達(dá)67.7%,A股市值縮水近20萬(wàn)億。分析人士稱(chēng),這次暴跌也應(yīng)該是長(zhǎng)線(xiàn)機(jī)會(huì)所在,但還必須忍受時(shí)間的煎熬。</p> <p>　　<strong>　　盤(pán)面</strong></p> <p>　　<strong>　　9大銀行股集體跌�！�2000點(diǎn)關(guān)口“薄如紙”</strong></p> <p>　　美國(guó)第四大投資銀行雷曼兄弟申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)的消息引起美股恐慌性?huà)伿�。周�?道瓊斯指數(shù)重挫逾500點(diǎn),標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾指數(shù)下跌近5%,創(chuàng)“9·11”以來(lái)的最大單日跌幅。美股暴跌引起了連鎖反應(yīng),全球股市集體遭遇重創(chuàng)。</p> <p>　　受此波及,昨天滬深股市早盤(pán)跳空低開(kāi),銀行股大幅下跌拖累滬指快速下行,上午9時(shí)47分滬指失守2000點(diǎn)關(guān)口。受到央行下調(diào)“兩率”將減少銀行息差收入的影響,銀行股出現(xiàn)罕見(jiàn)大跌,工商銀行、建設(shè)銀行、招商銀行、北京銀行、興業(yè)銀行、浦發(fā)銀行、深發(fā)展A、交通銀行、民生銀行等9大銀行股盤(pán)中集體“聯(lián)手”跌停。截至收盤(pán),除了民生銀行尾盤(pán)略為打開(kāi)跌停,其他8大銀行均封死跌停板上。</p> <p>　　另外,銀行股中僅南京銀行、寧波銀行跌幅小于9%。保險(xiǎn)、證券板塊也普遍走低,中國(guó)平安盤(pán)中一度跌停,中國(guó)人壽跌幅逾7%,中國(guó)太保、中國(guó)平安收盤(pán)跌幅均超過(guò)8%。中信證券跌幅超過(guò)6%,國(guó)元證券跌幅逾8%。</p> <p>　　與以往金融地產(chǎn)“同氣連枝”所不同,昨天地產(chǎn)板塊跟金融板塊走勢(shì)截然相反,表現(xiàn)相對(duì)抗跌。早盤(pán)地產(chǎn)股一度集體走強(qiáng),但午后個(gè)股走勢(shì)分化,綠景地產(chǎn)漲停,保利地產(chǎn)、渝開(kāi)發(fā)、華發(fā)股份漲幅逾3%,棲霞建設(shè)、中糧地產(chǎn)、首開(kāi)股份逆市收紅,而金融街、金地集團(tuán)、萬(wàn)科A跌幅不到1%。同時(shí),“神七”火箭發(fā)射日期的臨近再度刺激航天航空個(gè)股活躍,中國(guó)衛(wèi)星漲4%,成發(fā)科技、火箭股份等也表現(xiàn)抗跌。</p> <p>　　盡管有不少個(gè)股表現(xiàn)抗跌,但金融股的下挫還是致使股指下挫。最終,滬指報(bào)收于1986.64點(diǎn),下跌93.04點(diǎn),跌幅4.47%。</p> <p>　　不過(guò),滬深兩市不一致的走勢(shì),證明股市“冰火兩重天”格局的存在。與滬指全日低開(kāi)低走所不同,昨天上午,金融股較少的深成指一度翻紅,而且,深成指收于6873.61點(diǎn),跌61.46點(diǎn),跌幅0.89%,遠(yuǎn)小于滬指高達(dá)4.47%的跌幅。分析人士指出,由于金融股所占權(quán)重較大,因此昨日大盤(pán)主要還是受到金融股大幅殺跌的拖累。</p> <p>　　還有,兩市總成交約490億元,成交量明顯放大,市場(chǎng)人士判斷,這可能是資金在大量調(diào)倉(cāng),減持金融類(lèi)個(gè)股。</p> <p>　　<strong>　　原因</strong></p> <p>　　<strong>　　美股“打噴嚏”全球股市“患感冒”</strong></p> <p>　　美股“打噴嚏”、全球股市“患感冒”的規(guī)律依然沒(méi)有改變。創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的季度虧損、今年以來(lái)已跌去90%的股價(jià)、最終宣告破產(chǎn)的著名投行雷曼兄弟成為繼貝爾斯登后投給金融市場(chǎng)的又一顆重磅炸彈,而今這一炸彈終于引爆。可以說(shuō),“次貸危機(jī)”第五波風(fēng)暴席卷而來(lái),有著158年歷史的美國(guó)第四大投行雷曼兄弟申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù),該公司總債務(wù)為6130億美元,使得雷曼兄弟一舉成為美國(guó)歷史上倒閉的最大金融公司。</p> <p>　　伴隨著華爾街各種壞消息而來(lái)的是,全球股市在金融股的帶動(dòng)下大幅震蕩。承接美股周一大幅重挫,亞太股市昨天集體大跌,創(chuàng)近年來(lái)跌幅紀(jì)錄。香港恒生指數(shù)全日大跌逾千點(diǎn),跌1052點(diǎn),跌幅5.44%；臺(tái)灣地區(qū)股市跌4.55%；日本股市跌至三年低點(diǎn),跌幅5.1%；韓國(guó)股市重挫6.1%,創(chuàng)18個(gè)月來(lái)低點(diǎn)；新加坡海峽時(shí)報(bào)指數(shù)15日收盤(pán)下跌84.12點(diǎn)或3.3%。</p> <p>　　同時(shí),歐洲三大股市下挫,倫敦富時(shí)指數(shù)收?qǐng)?bào)5204.2點(diǎn),跌3.9%；法國(guó)巴黎CAC指數(shù)跌3.8%,報(bào)4168.97點(diǎn)；德國(guó)法蘭克福DAX指數(shù)報(bào)6064.16點(diǎn),跌2.7%。</p> <p>　　中金公司發(fā)布報(bào)告認(rèn)為,鑒于過(guò)高的估值水平、目前市場(chǎng)反映的對(duì)于未來(lái)過(guò)高的盈利預(yù)測(cè)水平、全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的走緩和通脹壓力下的利率上升風(fēng)險(xiǎn),該機(jī)構(gòu)繼續(xù)維持對(duì)于美國(guó)股市的中長(zhǎng)期看淡的觀(guān)點(diǎn)。中金公司認(rèn)為,繼續(xù)看淡中期走勢(shì),市場(chǎng)從金融機(jī)構(gòu)造成的混亂中恢復(fù)仍需要一段時(shí)間。近期雖然部分出問(wèn)題的大型金融機(jī)構(gòu)股價(jià)暴跌,但是整個(gè)金融類(lèi)股的走勢(shì)依然沒(méi)有受到太多影響,顯然市場(chǎng)仍認(rèn)為當(dāng)前的金融問(wèn)題僅僅局限在部分大型金融機(jī)構(gòu),但是中金認(rèn)為,隨著信貸市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性的收緊,未來(lái)美國(guó)大量中小金融機(jī)構(gòu)的資本狀況和盈利水平也將受到很大的負(fù)面影響。因此,整體金融股的調(diào)整依然沒(méi)有結(jié)束。</p> <p>　　回顧2007年以來(lái)的全球市場(chǎng),美國(guó)股市無(wú)論是波動(dòng)幅度,還是下跌深度上都遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)小于外圍市場(chǎng)。有市場(chǎng)人士認(rèn)為,美國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)的波動(dòng)在向歐洲以及日本傳播時(shí)具有放大效應(yīng),而對(duì)歷史數(shù)據(jù)的研究發(fā)現(xiàn),美國(guó)股市50%以上的波動(dòng)會(huì)都反映到歐洲的股市上。</p> <p>　　與全球市場(chǎng)愈趨同步的中國(guó)A股,難免還會(huì)繼續(xù)受到美股波動(dòng)的影響,“外患”依然值得保持高度關(guān)注。</p> <p>　　<strong>　　“兩率”齊降沖擊大銀行業(yè)處風(fēng)口浪尖</strong></p> <p>　　“單邊降息是短期利空,緊縮貨幣政策結(jié)束是中長(zhǎng)期利好。”這是央行下調(diào)“兩率”后,國(guó)金證券對(duì)銀行業(yè)所受影響的判斷。國(guó)金證券認(rèn)為,談及業(yè)績(jī)的負(fù)面影響,綜合考慮貸款收益下降、準(zhǔn)備金率下調(diào)、稅金減少等因素,測(cè)算的結(jié)果是,對(duì)于2008年銀行的業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鲩L(zhǎng)影響微小,原因在于存量貸款的重新定價(jià)基本在2009年初,所以,央行下調(diào)存款準(zhǔn)備金率對(duì)于2009年業(yè)績(jī)的負(fù)面影響約為3%-7%。如果不考慮其他驅(qū)動(dòng)因素的變化,銀行的平均業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鲩L(zhǎng)將從原先預(yù)測(cè)的20%下降到約15%。</p> <p>　　具體而言,綜合“兩率”下調(diào)的影響,國(guó)金證券認(rèn)為,凈利潤(rùn)受影響最大的是華夏銀行,預(yù)計(jì)該行2009凈利潤(rùn)受此影響減少7.22%,其次是深發(fā)展,受影響減少5.40%,接著分別是浦發(fā)、交行、中信和寧波銀行,它們分別因此凈利潤(rùn)減少5.26%、4.89%、4.71%和4.63%。</p> <p>　　單邊下調(diào)貸款利率降低了銀行的凈息差,對(duì)2009年的業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鲩L(zhǎng)是負(fù)面影響。不過(guò),從中長(zhǎng)期看,市場(chǎng)人士認(rèn)為,緊縮貨幣政策的終結(jié)降低宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)的硬著陸風(fēng)險(xiǎn),對(duì)銀行資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量的擔(dān)心不應(yīng)該過(guò)于悲觀(guān)。此外,國(guó)金證券預(yù)期,貸款的總量額度限制以及季度額度考核也可能會(huì)放松。</p> <p>　　昨天,房地產(chǎn)板塊表現(xiàn)抗跌,甚至回升。中金公司研究部分析員白宏煒表示,“利率下調(diào)”目的是維持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),對(duì)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)是利好,因?yàn)槔氏抡{(diào)表明國(guó)家未來(lái)政策導(dǎo)向已經(jīng)從抑制通脹轉(zhuǎn)向保持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)將受益于這一改變；尤其有利于房地產(chǎn)公司減少利息支出,按照初步預(yù)測(cè)其關(guān)注的公司未來(lái)平均利息節(jié)省將由幾百萬(wàn)元到幾千萬(wàn)元不等,大致提高企業(yè)盈利1%—3%；需求上看降低了購(gòu)房者購(gòu)房成本,短期拉動(dòng)需求有限,但趨勢(shì)向好。</p> <p>　　中信證券表示,信貸增速是判斷刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)政策是否有效的關(guān)鍵。該機(jī)構(gòu)認(rèn)為,從實(shí)際經(jīng)驗(yàn)來(lái)看,中國(guó)企業(yè)利潤(rùn)更多受貸款增速所驅(qū)動(dòng)。貸款增速?gòu)娜ツ?1月份17.03%回落到今年5月份的14.86%,同期工業(yè)企業(yè)利潤(rùn)增速?gòu)?6.7%回落到20.9%。鑒于2008年6、7、8月份貸款增速分別只有14.12%、14.58%、14.29%,因此8月份工業(yè)企業(yè)利潤(rùn)增速和3季度上市公司凈利潤(rùn)增速仍可能出現(xiàn)下行態(tài)勢(shì),這也正是前期股市積弱難返的主要原因。</p> <p>　　國(guó)泰君安的判斷是,“兩率”下調(diào),標(biāo)志著央行緊縮貨幣政策的全面轉(zhuǎn)向。2006年4月的貸款利率上調(diào)開(kāi)啟了本輪加息周期,因而貸款利率的下調(diào)也很可能意味著降息周期的開(kāi)始。</p> <p>　　回顧</p> <p>　　<strong>　　從6000點(diǎn)至2000點(diǎn)　A股市值縮水近20萬(wàn)億</strong></p> <p>　　最近幾天加快QFII擴(kuò)容步伐和“兩率”齊降等一系列的積極政策未能將消沉中的A股市場(chǎng)挽回頹勢(shì),昨天股指在隔夜歐美股市及當(dāng)天亞太地區(qū)股市全線(xiàn)崩盤(pán)的沖擊下,再次改寫(xiě)了本輪自6124點(diǎn)下跌以來(lái)的新低點(diǎn)。按整體下跌幅度算,不到11個(gè)月時(shí)間暴跌了67.7%,為中國(guó)證券歷史上第3大跌幅。</p> <p>　　從去年10月16日股市“見(jiàn)頂”,到今年9月中旬,11個(gè)月里,深滬兩市市值從32.71萬(wàn)億元減少到昨天的12.99萬(wàn)億元,近20萬(wàn)億元財(cái)富人間蒸發(fā),降幅近60%；成交量方面,光是滬市,頂峰時(shí)平均超過(guò)1500億元的成交額,近期成交額已經(jīng)萎縮到200億元—350元億之間,近期成交額不到頂峰時(shí)期的20%。另外,2007年至今實(shí)施增發(fā)的上市公司共236家,破發(fā)的有188家；去年以來(lái)共有260家公司首發(fā)募資,103家破發(fā),9月10日上市的東方雨虹第三日即破發(fā)；如今,A股平均靜態(tài)市盈率為17倍左右,其中,滬市平均市盈率為16.14倍。</p> <p>　　<strong>　　后市</strong></p> <p>　　<strong>　　貨幣政策轉(zhuǎn)向有助A股完成筑底</strong></p> <p>　　對(duì)于后市,“貨幣政策轉(zhuǎn)向可望引發(fā)短期反彈,但還需筑底�！边@是招商證券的基本判斷。該機(jī)構(gòu)認(rèn)為,滬深300指數(shù)季K線(xiàn)圖明確勾勒出一幅與泡沫膨脹完全對(duì)稱(chēng)的泡沫破裂后的走勢(shì)圖,而A股市場(chǎng)從2006年末2000點(diǎn)開(kāi)始進(jìn)入泡沫化趨勢(shì)中,則此次泡沫破裂終結(jié)于2000點(diǎn)附近應(yīng)是符合自然發(fā)展規(guī)律的情景。</p> <p>　　不過(guò),該機(jī)構(gòu)認(rèn)為,可以促成市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)折的兩大條件目前還算不上完全成熟:經(jīng)濟(jì)政策開(kāi)始轉(zhuǎn)向,但是否能立即發(fā)揮效果,還需要觀(guān)察；同時(shí),股市政策也開(kāi)始轉(zhuǎn)向,但能夠切實(shí)改變短期供需關(guān)系的強(qiáng)有力政策仍未出現(xiàn)。由此看來(lái),貨幣政策轉(zhuǎn)向帶來(lái)的短線(xiàn)反彈可以預(yù)期,但市場(chǎng)至少還需要繼續(xù)筑底以消化大小非減持壓力。</p> <p>　　短期來(lái)看,廣發(fā)證券表示,多年來(lái)的首次降息說(shuō)明政策導(dǎo)向已由前期的抑通脹向保增長(zhǎng)轉(zhuǎn)化,政策的放松有利于經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定,同樣也對(duì)證券市場(chǎng)起到積極作用,盡管降息后股指在金融股大跌影響下出現(xiàn)較大跌幅,但經(jīng)過(guò)短期的情緒宣泄后,股指在本周仍然具備企穩(wěn)回升的動(dòng)力。(記者駱海濤) </p> </div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="partner"></div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="editor">【<font color=CC0000>編輯:</font>位宇祥】</div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="guestbook"><TABLE style="MARGIN-TOP: 7px" cellSpacing=0 width="100%" id="comments"> <TBODY> <TR> <TD vAlign=top> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="" style="CLEAR: both; MARGIN-TOP: 10px; BACKGROUND-IMAGE: url(http://comment.chinanews.com.cn/comments/images/3.gif); HEIGHT: 23px"> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="12v" 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