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href='http://comment.chinanews.com.cn/comments/comments.php?newsid=1427752' target="_blank"><img src="/fileftp/2007/12/2007-12-13/U31P4T47D7993F967DT20071213101145.gif" width="14" height="14" border=0 /> <span id="49c1n6wlf" class="style3">發(fā)表評論 </span></a></span> </div> <hr /> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="content" class="cStyle0"> <br><img src=http://image1.chinanews.com.cn/08p/PhotoN/080131/080131267za_3.jpg><br><br><p align=left> 財經(jīng)漫畫：美聯(lián)儲再次降息中新社發(fā) 唐志順攝</p><br> <table width=100% border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=3 class=12v><tr><td width=77%><table width=100% border=0 cellspacing=2 cellpadding=5><tr><td class=12v bgcolor=E4EEFC><font color=#FF6600><b>版權(quán)聲明:</b></font><font color=#666666>凡標注有“cnsphoto”字樣的圖片版權(quán)均屬中國新聞網(wǎng)，未經(jīng)書面授權(quán)，不得轉(zhuǎn)載使用。</font></td></tr></table></td></tr></table> </div> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="slice"></div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="ad0" class="font16Style"><p>　　美國聯(lián)邦儲備委員會(美聯(lián)儲)于28日(當?shù)貢r間)召開貨幣政策例會。鑒于目前金融危機愈演愈烈和美國經(jīng)濟衰退風(fēng)險不斷增加，市場普遍預(yù)測，在本月8日緊急宣布降息50個基點后，美聯(lián)儲將在此次會議上再次下調(diào)聯(lián)邦基金利率(即商業(yè)銀行間隔夜拆借利率)。不過，降息效果可能將大不如前。 </p> <p>　　許多經(jīng)濟學(xué)家認為，政府7000億美元金融救助計劃對市場的激勵作用正在逐漸消退，對實體經(jīng)濟的更深層次憂慮開始主導(dǎo)投資者情緒，在通脹壓力已有所緩解的情況下，美聯(lián)儲可能進一步下調(diào)基準利率，以避免美國經(jīng)濟陷入嚴重的衰退困境中。</p> <p>　　多數(shù)經(jīng)濟學(xué)家預(yù)計，美聯(lián)儲在此次例會上將把聯(lián)邦基金利率至少再下調(diào)50個基點至1%，這是自2004年夏天以來的最低利率水平。也有一部分分析人士認為，美聯(lián)儲將降息25個基點，將聯(lián)邦基金利率下調(diào)至1.25%。</p> <p>　　東京-三菱銀行經(jīng)濟學(xué)家克里斯·魯普基表示，降息25個基點或50個基點都是不錯的選擇，降息的累積效應(yīng)會得到體現(xiàn)。全球財經(jīng)研究公司美國首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家布賴恩·貝蒂納認為，面對困境，美聯(lián)儲除了降息別無選擇，如有必要，利率甚至?xí)抵亮闼健Ｃ绹⒏袼寡芯抗镜慕?jīng)濟學(xué)家理查德·亞馬龍則指出，降息是提振市場信心的一個很好舉措，但他懷疑降息是否能刺激債務(wù)纏身的消費者增加消費。</p> <p>　　降息通常被視為緩解信貸緊縮、增進市場流動性、避免實體經(jīng)濟陷入嚴重衰退的一劑猛藥。降息令銀行間的拆借成本下降，進而意味著實體經(jīng)濟的借貸成本下降。美國的許多房貸、消費信貸以及其他浮動利率貸款都直接與商業(yè)銀行優(yōu)惠貸款利率掛鉤。如果聯(lián)邦基金利率降至1%，銀行優(yōu)惠貸款利率也將降至4年多來的最低水平——4%。然而，在當前信貸危機不斷惡化的形勢下，許多銀行擔心短期內(nèi)自身資金不足，而不愿進行同業(yè)拆借。因此，盡管短期借貸利率已經(jīng)較低，但市場流動性仍然未能大幅改善。</p> <p>　　美聯(lián)儲在2007年9月至2008年4月間已經(jīng)累計降息7次，一些經(jīng)濟學(xué)家認為美聯(lián)儲通過降息的貨幣政策來解決信貸市場問題已不再重要。美聯(lián)儲副主席科恩也似乎承認，降息的作用已不及以前重要。部分批評人士還指出，2003年夏天，格林斯潘將聯(lián)邦基金利率降至1%，并維持了一年，正是低利率才引發(fā)了房地產(chǎn)泡沫。</p> <p>　　本周美國將陸續(xù)公布第三季度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值初值、9月份新房銷售數(shù)據(jù)、耐用品訂貨數(shù)據(jù)、個人消費開支數(shù)據(jù)以及10月份消費者信心指數(shù)等。經(jīng)濟學(xué)家對美國經(jīng)濟前景仍不樂觀，他們認為，各項經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)將延續(xù)頹勢，尤其是國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值將可能出現(xiàn)負增長。(王云）</div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="partner"></div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="editor">【<font color=CC0000>編輯:</font>位宇祥】</div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="guestbook"><TABLE style="MARGIN-TOP: 7px" cellSpacing=0 width="100%" id="comments"> <TBODY> <TR> <TD vAlign=top> <div id="49c1n6wlf" 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