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美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)或?qū)嵤┝憷?/div> <hr /> <div>2008年11月10日 10:14 來源：中國經(jīng)濟(jì)網(wǎng) <span id="49c1n6wlf" class="style3"><a target="_blank"><img src="/fileftp/2007/12/2007-12-13/U31P4T47D7993F967DT20071213101145.gif" width="14" height="14" border=0 /> <span id="49c1n6wlf" class="style3">發(fā)表評(píng)論 </span></a></span> </div> <hr /> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="content" class="cStyle0">  </div> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="slice"></div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="ad0" class="font16Style"><p>　　美國政府上周五公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，過去兩個(gè)月美國失業(yè)人數(shù)加快增加，導(dǎo)致10月份失業(yè)率升至14年高位，這意味著美國經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡已經(jīng)朝著深度衰退的方向發(fā)展。</p> <p>　　在就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)公布后，美國財(cái)政部官員及前美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席格林斯潘都表示，第四季度美國經(jīng)濟(jì)必將非常疲弱。</p> <p>　　分析人士指出，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員可能考慮在未來數(shù)周內(nèi)將利率進(jìn)一步下調(diào)至50年低點(diǎn)。 </p> <p>　　而美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一位官員上周五甚至表示，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)仍擁有大量應(yīng)對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的工具，其中包括將基準(zhǔn)利率水平下調(diào)至零在內(nèi)。</p> <p>　　本報(bào)綜合報(bào)道美國勞工部上周五公布，10月份非農(nóng)就業(yè)人數(shù)下降240000人，降幅高于預(yù)期，為連續(xù)第十個(gè)月下降，將今年失業(yè)總?cè)藬?shù)推至120萬人。同時(shí)，失業(yè)率飆升0.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，至6.5%，為1994年3月以來的最高水平。而此前公布的9月份非農(nóng)就業(yè)人數(shù)為減少284000人，創(chuàng)2001年11月以來的最大降幅。</p> <p>　　接受道瓊斯通訊社調(diào)查的華爾街經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家此前預(yù)計(jì)，美國10月份非農(nóng)就業(yè)人數(shù)減少200000人，失業(yè)率為6.3%。</p> <p>　　尤其令人擔(dān)憂的是，構(gòu)成就業(yè)主體的勞動(dòng)密集的服務(wù)業(yè)通常對(duì)就業(yè)人數(shù)下降起到緩沖作用，然而10月份服務(wù)業(yè)就業(yè)人數(shù)卻連續(xù)第二個(gè)月大幅下降。</p> <p>　　在就業(yè)人數(shù)連續(xù)兩個(gè)月加快下降的同時(shí)，就業(yè)人員的平均時(shí)薪提高0.04美元，至18.21美元，升幅0.2%，較上年同期僅增長3.5%，這意味著經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡使工人越發(fā)難以提出更高的薪資要求。</p> <p>　　據(jù)悉，惠而浦公司、克萊斯勒、高盛集團(tuán)和默沙東公司上月已公布裁員計(jì)劃，體現(xiàn)出就業(yè)滑坡的廣泛影響。</p> <p>　　此外，美國全國地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)商協(xié)會(huì)上周五表示，9月份成屋簽約銷售指數(shù)下降4.6%，大幅超過市場預(yù)期的下降3.7%，表明住房市場仍未擺脫信貸市場吃緊和經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢持續(xù)惡化的困擾。</p> <p>　　而美國供應(yīng)管理學(xué)會(huì)上周一公布，10月份制造業(yè)活動(dòng)指數(shù)降至1982年經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退以來的最低水平，汽車銷售也降至20世紀(jì)80年代早期以來的最低點(diǎn)。</p> <p>　　一系列黯淡的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，盡管目前為止美國經(jīng)濟(jì)避開了嚴(yán)重低迷，但看上去美國經(jīng)濟(jì)似乎將迎來20世紀(jì)80年代早期出現(xiàn)的典型嚴(yán)重衰退，而不是20世紀(jì)90年代早期和2001年出現(xiàn)的相對(duì)溫和的衰退。</p> <p><strong>　　美國經(jīng)濟(jì)必將非常疲弱</strong></p> <p>　　在就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)公布后，美國財(cái)政部負(fù)責(zé)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的助理部長Phillip Swagel稱，第四季度美國經(jīng)濟(jì)必將非常疲弱，這一狀況甚至有可能會(huì)延續(xù)至明年年初。他指出，在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長狀況好轉(zhuǎn)之前恐難以看到就業(yè)市場有任何改善跡象，而信貸市場穩(wěn)定又是經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)增長的必要條件。</p> <p>　　而美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)前主席格林斯潘也于上周五表示，美國第四季國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)將大幅下滑。而據(jù)美國商務(wù)部10月30日公布的初步數(shù)據(jù)，美國GDP第三季度按年率計(jì)算出現(xiàn)0.3%的負(fù)增長，為2001年第三季度以來最大降幅。</p> <p><strong>　　美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)或會(huì)實(shí)施零利率</strong></p> <p>　　而就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)公布后，市場對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)進(jìn)一步降息的預(yù)期迅速升溫。部分經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)，美國利率可能降至20世紀(jì)50年代以來前所未有的水平。</p> <p>　　高盛經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家上周五表示，預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在12月的貨幣政策會(huì)議上將利率下調(diào)50個(gè)基點(diǎn)，至0.50%。高盛還預(yù)計(jì)，美國失業(yè)率可能在明年年底之前升至8.5%，并調(diào)低對(duì)美國GDP的預(yù)測。</p> <p>　　而美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一位官員上周五甚至表示，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能將基準(zhǔn)利率水平下調(diào)至零。</p> <p>　　亞特蘭大聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行行長Dennis Lockhart表示，如果諸多問題依然存在，從理論上講，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可以實(shí)施零利率政策，而且這可能也在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)考慮范圍之內(nèi)。</p> <p>　　而此前一周，舊金山聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行行長Janet Yellen還只是表示，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能會(huì)在必要情況下將利率下調(diào)至1%以下。(廣州日?qǐng)?bào)）</div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="partner"></div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="editor">【<font color=CC0000>編輯:</font>位宇祥】</div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="guestbook"><TABLE style="MARGIN-TOP: 7px" cellSpacing=0 width="100%" id="comments"> <TBODY> <TR> <TD vAlign=top> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="" style="CLEAR: both; MARGIN-TOP: 10px; BACKGROUND-IMAGE: url(http://comment.chinanews.com.cn/comments/images/3.gif); HEIGHT: 23px"> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="12v" style="PADDING-LEFT: 10px; FONT-WEIGHT: 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