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target="_blank"><img src="/fileftp/2007/12/2007-12-13/U31P4T47D7993F967DT20071213101145.gif" width="14" height="14" border=0 /> <span id="49c1n6wlf" class="style3">發(fā)表評論 </span></a></span> </div> <hr /> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="content" class="cStyle0">  </div> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="slice"></div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="ad0" class="font16Style"><p>　　盡管各國公布的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩正在繼續(xù)上演，市場對大宗商品消費(fèi)需求減少的擔(dān)憂也沒有消失，但隨著一系列“救市”措施開始發(fā)揮效力，上游供應(yīng)商也紛紛減產(chǎn)以應(yīng)對價(jià)格暴跌，越來越多的市場人士開始認(rèn)為，商品市場持續(xù)暴跌的行情將告一段落。</p> <p><strong>　　油價(jià)反彈至75美元附近</strong></p> <p>　　國內(nèi)大宗商品市場昨日顯現(xiàn)久違的普漲行情，無論是三大期貨交易所中的期貨品種還是遍布全國各地的現(xiàn)貨交易市場，成交價(jià)都錄得明顯反彈。全球大宗商品同樣也出現(xiàn)了類似的狀況，國際油價(jià)在昨日早間的電子盤中大幅反彈，回到75美元附近。 </p> <p>　　在上海期貨交易所，兩周來出現(xiàn)多個(gè)跌停的有色金屬等工業(yè)品期貨昨日全線上漲，其中燃料油和金屬鋁還收于漲停；在鄭州和大連，農(nóng)產(chǎn)品期貨漲停的品種中包括全部豆類、白糖和植物油等。</p> <p>　　而在現(xiàn)貨市場上，周末的成交進(jìn)一步活躍，在廣東南儲(chǔ)，有色金屬上游廠商的出貨意愿明顯增加�！吧现芎蠖纹饑鴥�(nèi)現(xiàn)貨環(huán)境轉(zhuǎn)好，庫存下降及滬鋁反彈支持看多預(yù)期，下游用戶逐漸購貨補(bǔ)庫，周末本地出貨量有所增加，原鋁出略大于進(jìn)，因此今日本地庫存量繼續(xù)小降，但市面流通貨源明顯增多�！睆V東南儲(chǔ)的許坦煒告訴記者，“國內(nèi)金屬鋅現(xiàn)貨市場開始出現(xiàn)觸底的跡象，如成交轉(zhuǎn)好、庫存下降等。鋅價(jià)跌至10000元/噸一線后，下游用戶抄底興趣轉(zhuǎn)好，商家也逐漸增加持貨量，市場報(bào)價(jià)貼水減少�！�</p> <p><strong>　　供應(yīng)商減產(chǎn)大面積出現(xiàn)</strong></p> <p>　　連續(xù)幾天來出現(xiàn)的多條利好消息是商品市場集體反彈的導(dǎo)火索，盡管類似利好消息在過去的一個(gè)多月里面出現(xiàn)過許多，但投資者在本周一的市場上首次顯現(xiàn)了對這些利好的敏感，并給予了積極反應(yīng)。</p> <p>　　中國和德國政府近日相繼出臺(tái)了挽救各自國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)市場和金融市場的政策。尤其是中國的挽救房地產(chǎn)市場的政策如果能夠最終發(fā)揮效用，將直接增加建筑市場對大宗商品的需求。</p> <p>　　而供應(yīng)商的減產(chǎn)措施也終于引起了下游買家的反應(yīng)。其中OPEC組織的減產(chǎn)提議成為昨日原油市場最主要的刺激因素。</p> <p>　　有色金屬行業(yè)內(nèi)的減產(chǎn)也開始進(jìn)入白熱化，中國鋁業(yè)上周表示，由于鋁價(jià)低迷，將暫時(shí)關(guān)閉約100萬噸氧化鋁產(chǎn)能，國內(nèi)產(chǎn)量因此減少5%左右；中國第二大氧化鋁生產(chǎn)商山東魏橋鋁業(yè)稱，該公司年產(chǎn)400萬噸的氧化鋁設(shè)備上月已半停產(chǎn)，同時(shí)也在減少對國內(nèi)現(xiàn)貨市場的氧化鋁供應(yīng)。而十七屆三中全會(huì)中提出鼓勵(lì)農(nóng)村土地承包權(quán)流轉(zhuǎn)以及提高農(nóng)產(chǎn)品收購價(jià)格的政策，國內(nèi)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品期貨昨日大面積漲停。</p> <p><strong>　　市場分析</strong></p> <p><strong>　　后市或以區(qū)間波動(dòng)為主</strong></p> <p>　　在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)并未出現(xiàn)好轉(zhuǎn)的關(guān)口，市場人士并不認(rèn)為這些利好消息足以讓商品市場發(fā)生反轉(zhuǎn)，但經(jīng)歷了數(shù)月的暴跌行情或?qū)⒌酱私Y(jié)束，區(qū)間波動(dòng)的走勢將成為今后一段時(shí)間內(nèi)的主旋律。</p> <p>　　“油價(jià)在持續(xù)暴跌后，市場會(huì)積累短期反彈能量，但在經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境不穩(wěn)定的情況下，反彈的時(shí)間和空間難以確定，市場信心的缺失及買盤的匱乏很大程度上會(huì)壓制反彈高度�！敝袊鴩H期貨高級分析師劉亞琴表示。</p> <p>　　劉旭則認(rèn)為，供給方面的限制已經(jīng)開始給有色金屬以支撐，“銅價(jià)目前已經(jīng)跌破了4萬元的關(guān)口，價(jià)格雖然仍然處于高位，但泡沫已經(jīng)大大減少，由于目前的銅市場供應(yīng)過剩量并不是很嚴(yán)重，其價(jià)格的支撐力更為強(qiáng)勁一些。在短期內(nèi)，由于上周銅價(jià)反彈后的下跌并未能創(chuàng)出新低，價(jià)格開始反彈，從技術(shù)上看短期內(nèi)銅價(jià)已經(jīng)見底�！�</p> <p>　　而據(jù)廣發(fā)期貨農(nóng)產(chǎn)品研究員劉清力介紹，連日來有大量多頭資金開始涌入農(nóng)產(chǎn)品市場，使其出現(xiàn)放量上漲行情，“雖然持倉增加并不多，仍然是日內(nèi)操作為主，或是需要通過操作逐漸拉高價(jià)格，但上漲仍是資金涌動(dòng)的結(jié)果，后期或還有上漲空間�！�(記者游鋒華) </div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="partner"></div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="editor">【<font color=CC0000>編輯:</font>位宇祥】</div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="guestbook"><TABLE style="MARGIN-TOP: 7px" cellSpacing=0 width="100%" id="comments"> <TBODY> <TR> <TD vAlign=top> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="" style="CLEAR: both; MARGIN-TOP: 10px; BACKGROUND-IMAGE: url(http://comment.chinanews.com.cn/comments/images/3.gif); HEIGHT: 23px"> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="12v" style="PADDING-LEFT: 10px; FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FLOAT: left; PADDING-TOP: 9px">請您評論 <a 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