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onClick="ad0.style.fontSize='12px';">縮小字體</a>】</div> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="title0">美國金融風暴難言盡頭中國宏觀政策或?qū)⑸?/div> <hr /> <div>2008年09月19日 12:02 來源：南方日報 <span id="49c1n6wlf" class="style3"><a target="_blank"><img src="/fileftp/2007/12/2007-12-13/U31P4T47D7993F967DT20071213101145.gif" width="14" height="14" border=0 /> <span id="49c1n6wlf" class="style3">發(fā)表評論 </span></a></span> </div> <hr /> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="content" class="cStyle0">  </div> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="slice"></div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="ad0" class="font16Style"><p>　　由雷曼兄弟破產(chǎn)引發(fā)的華爾街風暴,讓人們普遍對中國經(jīng)濟的未來開始擔憂。大洋彼岸的金融危機會把中國也拖下水嗎?中國的經(jīng)濟速度是否已經(jīng)開始放緩?未來的宏觀政策能否松綁?</p> <p><strong>　　經(jīng)濟增速放緩</strong></p> <p>　　在中央財經(jīng)大學中國銀行業(yè)研究中心主任郭田勇看來,這場金融風暴給中國經(jīng)濟的影響主要在投資者的心理層面。中國社科院經(jīng)濟研究所研究員、博士生導師袁鋼明也認為,雷曼兄弟破產(chǎn)對中國影響最大的是股市�！坝捎谥袊墒刑幱诘鴦葜�,缺乏人氣,不利消息對股民心理影響很大。” </p> <p>　　但是,更多的觀點則認為,這場金融海嘯已經(jīng)切切實實地深入到了中國的實體經(jīng)濟中來�！昂艽蟪潭壬蠒䴗p緩中國的經(jīng)濟增長,”美國《商業(yè)周刊》北美版前執(zhí)行總編,清華大學新聞與傳播學院高級訪問學者羅伯特·道林在接受本報記者的采訪時表示,“奧運會以后中國的經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)開始放緩,金融風暴將把這個速度繼續(xù)拉低。”</p> <p>　　“由于金融界資金萎縮,大宗產(chǎn)品、黃金及原油價格在下降,對相關(guān)企業(yè)會產(chǎn)生影響。”清華大學中國與世界經(jīng)濟研究中心主任李稻葵告訴記者,同時,由于西方資金緊張,流入中國的外資會減少。</p> <p>　　而在道林看來,不僅僅是外資的減少,他更為擔心的是那些持有大量美國金融機構(gòu)股票和基金的中國銀行業(yè)�！懊绹舜蔚慕鹑陲L暴只會使這個問題更加嚴重。金融風暴引起美國股指暴跌,而中國政府曾在華爾街購入大量股票,中國的銀行、基金公司也曾買入大量美國基金�！�</p> <p>　　“除此以外,金融危機引發(fā)的貸款困難還會直接影響中國的貿(mào)易出口�！钡懒直硎�。中國社科院世界經(jīng)濟與政治研究所世界金融研究室副主任張斌也認為中國未來的出口形勢將會更加嚴峻。他認為,“由于受此次金融危機的沖擊,美國經(jīng)濟在下半年仍有下滑的可能,從而導致其國民消費能力和消費欲望繼續(xù)降低,而投資支出將出現(xiàn)增加。”</p> <p>　　張斌告訴本報記者:“這對中國的外貿(mào)出口并不是一個利好消息。”如果美國國民的消費需求減少而制造業(yè)因投資增加而恢復逐漸活力,那么勢必減少從中國進口商品的數(shù)量。</p> <p>　　不僅是出口環(huán)境惡化,進口成本也會大大增加。在張斌看來,雖然中長期還是看好美國經(jīng)濟走強和美元匯率走高,但是短期內(nèi)弱勢美元的政策似乎已被市場所認可�！叭绱艘粊�,原油、鐵礦石等資源性產(chǎn)品的價格將被再度推高,我國進口以美元計價的大宗商品付出的成本也大為增加�！�</p> <p><strong>　　央行或再降息</strong></p> <p>　　為了避免因雷曼兄弟控股公司破產(chǎn)對大陸股市構(gòu)成太大沖擊,中國央行上周日出人意料地宣布降息�；鶞实囊荒昶谫J款利率下調(diào)0.27個百分點,至7.2%,存款利率不變。與此同時,央行還下調(diào)了小銀行的存款準備金率。這是6年多來,中國央行首次降息。</p> <p>　　業(yè)內(nèi)人士表示,央行選擇這一時點宣布六年來的第一次降息決定,明顯有穩(wěn)定市場、減緩外部因素對中國經(jīng)濟的沖擊之意。分析人士認為,接下來央行還有可能會繼續(xù)降息。</p> <p>　　國際著名投資銀行摩根大通星期二發(fā)表報告稱,為了避免受海外市場過度沖擊同時也為了刺激中國經(jīng)濟增長,中國央行可能會再次下調(diào)關(guān)鍵利率并放松銀根擴大信貸規(guī)模。分析人士預計,中國央行在未來幾周內(nèi)還可能再次進行降息,以維持市場穩(wěn)定。</p> <p>　　“中國決策者未來幾個月內(nèi)可能會再次降息,同時會實施更加積極的財政政策�！蹦Ω笸ǘ驴偨�(jīng)理及中國市場主席李晶的觀點是,防范經(jīng)濟增長減速太快已經(jīng)取代抑制通貨膨脹成為中國決策者當前面臨的首要任務�！�</p> <p>　　“我國已經(jīng)進入降息周期�！痹诠镉驴磥�,未來的宏觀政策可能會繼續(xù)放松。目前正在討論的增值稅和企業(yè)所得稅的調(diào)整,都將會直接減少國內(nèi)中小企業(yè)的負擔,防止經(jīng)濟下滑。</p> <p><strong>　　防熱錢流入是關(guān)鍵</strong></p> <p>　　昨日,在記者采訪中,眾多專家已經(jīng)將中國經(jīng)濟速度定義為下行趨勢。在未來中國政策的走向上,專家們的觀點也趨于一致。</p> <p>　　國家發(fā)改委宏觀院國際經(jīng)濟研究室副主任曲鳳杰認為:“目前這種狀況下,通脹不再最突出�！弊顬橥怀龅膯栴}是經(jīng)濟增速的下滑。央行貨幣政策委員會委員、中國國民經(jīng)濟研究所所長樊綱也表示:“經(jīng)濟下行趨勢已經(jīng)形成。”他認為,現(xiàn)在需要的是逆風調(diào)節(jié)和反周期調(diào)節(jié)。</p> <p>　　樊綱認為,在過去的兩年間,我國采取的一直是緊縮的貨幣政策,現(xiàn)在,面對復雜的國際經(jīng)濟形勢和國內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟增速下滑,這一政策必須做出調(diào)整。</p> <p>　　國務院發(fā)展研究中心對外經(jīng)濟研究部副部長隆國強在接受采訪時也表示,從今年已經(jīng)上調(diào)的出口退稅率,我們能夠看到貿(mào)易政策方向性發(fā)生了轉(zhuǎn)變�！斑@些都是針對已經(jīng)發(fā)生了的新情況�！�</p> <p>　　而在銀河證券首席經(jīng)濟學家左小蕾看來,中國政府現(xiàn)在最重要的就是別讓全球資本流入中國,以免再制造一場危機。她在接受本報記者采訪時表示,現(xiàn)在需要警惕的是金融資本會不會從華爾街流向其它地方。</p> <p>　　“游資或許會像上一輪經(jīng)濟危機中的一樣,從華爾街流出,流向石油市場,流向糧食市場,最終把全球石油、糧食價格推得很高,導致全球通貨膨脹�！弊笮±僭俅蜗蛴浾邚娬{(diào),“我們一定要把匯率管住,這種金融資本是追求高風險的,這個階段流進中國,很有可能會成事不足敗事有余�！�(記者呂天玲楊小亮) </div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="partner"></div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="editor">【<font color=CC0000>編輯:</font>位宇祥】</div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="guestbook"><TABLE style="MARGIN-TOP: 7px" cellSpacing=0 width="100%" id="comments"> <TBODY> <TR> <TD vAlign=top> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="" style="CLEAR: both; MARGIN-TOP: 10px; BACKGROUND-IMAGE: url(http://comment.chinanews.com.cn/comments/images/3.gif); HEIGHT: 23px"> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="12v" 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