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class="49c1n6wlf" id="newstext"> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="pageOp">【<a href="#" onClick="ad0.style.fontSize='20px';">放大字體</a>】【<a href="#" onClick="ad0.style.fontSize='12px';">縮小字體</a>】</div> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="title0">從繁榮到冷清是什么讓中國樓市轉(zhuǎn)變?nèi)绱酥欤?/div> <hr /> <div>2008年10月30日 10:52 來源：金融時(shí)報(bào) <span id="49c1n6wlf" class="style3"><a target="_blank"><img src="/fileftp/2007/12/2007-12-13/U31P4T47D7993F967DT20071213101145.gif" width="14" height="14" border=0 /> <span id="49c1n6wlf" class="style3">發(fā)表評論 </span></a></span> </div> <hr /> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="content" class="cStyle0">  </div> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="slice"></div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="ad0" class="font16Style"><p>　　曾經(jīng)一房難求，以至購房者需通宵排隊(duì)的樓市繁榮和喧囂，如今早已被低迷的成交和冷清的人氣所取代。即便樓市新政實(shí)施后，樓市依然未見顯著回暖。</p> <p>　　從繁榮到冷清，從喧嘩到沉寂，是什么讓一切轉(zhuǎn)變?nèi)绱酥欤?/p> <p>　　我們可以將這一切歸咎于房價(jià)泡沫破裂后，原先的購房大軍轉(zhuǎn)入觀望；也可以將這一切歸咎于全球樓市不景氣，改變了我國購房者的心理預(yù)期；還可以將這一切歸咎于開發(fā)商與購房者相互博弈，彼此互不讓步、僵持不下……其實(shí)，我們最應(yīng)當(dāng)歸咎的是居民購買力的下降速度實(shí)在太快、太猛，以至于即便富人，如今也難以在房市上一擲千金。 </p> <p>　　富人組成的“購房團(tuán)”、“炒房團(tuán)”，以及一夜暴富的諸如煤老板們，曾是樓市繁榮的生力軍。他們動輒大片樓盤通吃的強(qiáng)勁購買力，不僅加劇了樓市的供求失衡，也快速推高著房價(jià)，以至于房價(jià)陡峭的上漲斜率更引來了居民的搶購潮。然而，美國次貸危機(jī)引發(fā)的全球金融危機(jī)改變了一切。僅僅一年不到的時(shí)間，人們發(fā)現(xiàn)，從鋼鐵、石油到煤炭，再到農(nóng)產(chǎn)品和有色金屬，我們所能想到的大宗商品價(jià)格，如今都以水銀瀉地般的速度快速跌落。煤老板們自然風(fēng)光不再，從事大宗商品生產(chǎn)或投資的其他老板們，如今錢袋也快速縮水。沒有了暴富資源的支撐，富人們不僅不再是樓市出手闊綽的強(qiáng)大需求者，反而成了大肆拋售手中樓盤的樓市供給者。</p> <p>　　居民的購買力又怎樣呢？始自去年10月、迄今高達(dá)72.8%的股市大跌，不僅使居民的賬面資產(chǎn)急劇縮水、財(cái)產(chǎn)性收入增長成竹籃打水，也擊碎了很多居民原先的購房計(jì)劃和夢想。而經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度放緩，企業(yè)利潤增速的不斷下滑，以及由此而來的“減薪潮”，在帶來企業(yè)員工收入減少的同時(shí)，也在悄然改變著他們的收入預(yù)期和消費(fèi)行為。居民購買力的急速下降，對普通商品住宅市場打擊最大�？梢宰糇C的是，在京城樓市整體持續(xù)低迷的市道中，普通商品住宅受影響最大，供應(yīng)量明顯下滑。</p> <p>　　現(xiàn)在，一邊是依然高聳的房價(jià)，一邊是快速下降的居民購買力；一邊是依然懷念以往多高的房價(jià)都有人買、幻想樓市盛景很快梅開二度的開發(fā)商們，一邊是望樓興嘆、錢袋干癟、期待著樓價(jià)能與購買力接近甚至接軌的居民。這兩股力量間的期望、想法和行為之間的差距是如此之大，以至整個(gè)樓市不得不以僵局維持著。</p> <p>　　面對僵局，樓市救市政策蜂擁而出。在18個(gè)城市地方政府接連出臺房地產(chǎn)救市政策后，中央政府也終于出手。財(cái)政部規(guī)定，從2008年11月1日起，對個(gè)人首次購買90平方米及以下普通住房的，契稅稅率暫統(tǒng)一下調(diào)到1%；對個(gè)人銷售或購買住房暫免征收印花稅；對個(gè)人銷售住房暫免征收土地增值稅；地方政府可制定鼓勵(lì)住房消費(fèi)的收費(fèi)減免政策。緊隨財(cái)政部之后，央行決定將商業(yè)性個(gè)人住房貸款利率下限擴(kuò)大為貸款基準(zhǔn)利率的0.7倍；最低首付款比例調(diào)整為20%；同時(shí),下調(diào)個(gè)人住房公積金貸款利率0.27個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。從目前看，救市政策確實(shí)在降低居民購房成本的同時(shí)，對提高居民購買力有一定幫助，部分原本就擁有購買力的居民可能因?yàn)檎叩拇碳ざ铀籴尫刨彿啃枨螅瑯鞘谐山挥型》帕俊５痛蟛糠志用穸�，政策給予的優(yōu)惠與其目前自身的購買力之間，依然存在著不小的差距。</p> <p>　　從當(dāng)前居民購買力現(xiàn)狀和今后經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展趨勢看，在自住型購房需求已接近飽和，改善型住房需求成為房市新需求的中堅(jiān)后，要拯救樓市，必須將根本點(diǎn)放在如何采取措施增加居民收入、提高居民購買力上。自住型購房需求是房市中最剛性的需求，這部分需求曾經(jīng)推動了房市的大牛市；改善型住房需求較之自住型購房需求，其釋放的力度和釋放的迫切性，事實(shí)上更與居民的購買力密切有關(guān)。如果救市政策無法讓居民的購買力得以改善和提升，那么，在開發(fā)商不愿痛快降低房價(jià)的前提下，房市的僵局將很難打破。(徐紹峰) </div> <div 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