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href="/index.shtml"><font color=ffffff>新聞中心</font></a> → </font><a href=/estate.html><font color=ffffff>房產(chǎn)新聞</font></a> </div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="newsContent"> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="newstext"> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="pageOp">【<a href="#" onClick="ad0.style.fontSize='20px';">放大字體</a>】【<a href="#" onClick="ad0.style.fontSize='12px';">縮小字體</a>】</div> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="title0">業(yè)內(nèi)預(yù)測：廣州樓市09年五一前后或?qū)⑷婕せ?/div> <hr /> <div>2008年12月26日 10:20 來源：廣州日報 <span id="49c1n6wlf" class="style3"><a target="_blank"><img src="/fileftp/2007/12/2007-12-13/U31P4T47D7993F967DT20071213101145.gif" width="14" height="14" border=0 /> <span id="49c1n6wlf" class="style3">發(fā)表評論 </span></a></span> </div> <hr /> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="content" class="cStyle0">  </div> <div id="49c1n6wlf" class="slice"></div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="ad0" class="font16Style"><p>　　<font face=楷體_GB2312>　<strong>　新政激活需求樓市或?qū)⒅噩F(xiàn)生機</strong></font></p> <p>　　<font face=楷體_GB2312>　　在中央保增長擴內(nèi)需調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)的總體要求下，新的房地產(chǎn)政策導(dǎo)向已經(jīng)明確，即鼓勵支持住房消費，激活房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)展。廣州樓市在經(jīng)歷持續(xù)一年多調(diào)整后，供應(yīng)方逐漸適應(yīng)賣方市場特征，新政利好和價格回落合力影響下，一度受抑的買家信心也開始恢復(fù)，合富輝煌市場研究部的研究資料顯示，預(yù)計2009年置業(yè)需求將獲得激活，樓市成交有望擺脫低迷。</font></p> <p>　　<strong>　　五一前后樓市</strong> </p> <p>　　<strong>　　或?qū)⑷婕せ?/strong></p> <p>　　2009年重獲中央政策支持無疑使樓市信心恢復(fù)具備了首要前提。而地方政府對樓市的反應(yīng)將更加積極，目前廣州市政府已經(jīng)明確提出暫停限價房用地的出讓，并在年底出讓的商住用地中對“90/70”限戶型政策進(jìn)行靈活安排，也減少了土地出讓計劃。預(yù)計更多其他利好政策也會在近期陸續(xù)明確。</p> <p>　　另一方面，當(dāng)前面向首次置業(yè)者中小戶型產(chǎn)品房價降幅較大，多數(shù)樓盤產(chǎn)品總價已下調(diào)至主流剛性置業(yè)者價格承受區(qū)間。合富輝煌集團市場研究部在今年11月對潛在置業(yè)者監(jiān)測顯示，只有15%的置業(yè)者認(rèn)為房價還會大幅下降，更多的客戶認(rèn)為房價即使再降其空間也非常有限。同時，據(jù)合富置業(yè)監(jiān)測2008年1~11月二手住宅成交均價同比上漲9%，可從側(cè)面提供房價信心支持。</p> <p>　　鑒于當(dāng)下特殊經(jīng)濟環(huán)境，2009年初置業(yè)需求全面激活難度較大，預(yù)計較大規(guī)模的需求釋放會在五一前后，因為其時中央和各地方房地產(chǎn)政策細(xì)則都將基本明確，而且各行業(yè)的企業(yè)裁員和降薪調(diào)整將基本完成，潛在置業(yè)者對自身收入預(yù)期和未來發(fā)展會有所把握。一旦剛性自住需求普遍入市，成交數(shù)據(jù)有顯著回暖，追求舒適和偏重保值的多次置業(yè)需求也將隨之激發(fā)。</p> <p>　　<strong>　成交：銷售面積預(yù)增兩成 100m2戶型料熱銷</strong></p> <p>　　展望2009年，在政策大力刺激以及市場信心逐步恢復(fù)的情況下，存貸利率繼續(xù)下調(diào)、各種稅費減免等措施，都將推動商品住宅成交量回升，但受制于經(jīng)濟基本面的嚴(yán)峻形勢，成交量大幅恢復(fù)達(dá)到2007年水準(zhǔn)難度較大。預(yù)計廣州市2009年成交量約在650萬~700萬平方米，平均月度成交量為54萬~60萬平方米，比2008年560萬平方米左右的成交面積增長兩成。</p> <p>　　成交戶型結(jié)構(gòu)預(yù)計將延續(xù)2008年趨勢，主要集中在100平方米左右，這一方面受供應(yīng)結(jié)構(gòu)影響，另一方面也由于80至110平方米內(nèi)的住宅產(chǎn)品可在控制總價和居住功能上達(dá)成平衡，性價比較高。</p> <p>　　<strong>供應(yīng)：供應(yīng)充足中心六區(qū)約增3.1萬套新貨</strong></p> <p>　　據(jù)合富輝煌市場研究部不完全估計，2009年廣州市中心六區(qū)新增供應(yīng)約3.1萬套，約300多萬平方米，相比2008年有一定幅度的減少；全市十區(qū)新增供應(yīng)約4.9萬套，約500萬平方米；相比2008年同樣有所減少。由于2008年底的余貨比2007年大幅增加，全市的余貨約2.7萬套，因此預(yù)計2009年的可售貨量與2008年相當(dāng)，供應(yīng)充足。2009年內(nèi)供求形勢不會出現(xiàn)再度逆轉(zhuǎn)。</p> <p>　　2009年廣州商品住宅新增供應(yīng)仍以外圍為主，主要集中在白云區(qū)、海珠區(qū)、花都區(qū)及番禺區(qū)；白云區(qū)新增商品住宅供應(yīng)充足，特別是金沙洲區(qū)域和城西的貨量大；海珠區(qū)新增供應(yīng)有所增加，天河區(qū)則有所減少。越秀區(qū)貨量保持穩(wěn)定，荔灣區(qū)則有較多的新貨供應(yīng)。</p> <p>　　鑒于目前房價走勢，限價房已不被市場看好，預(yù)計2009年限價房余貨加新貨上市約4000套，對商品房市場的沖擊大為減弱。</p> <p>　　<strong>　房價：降幅趨緩在8500~9500元/m2波動</strong></p> <p>　　2009年廣州房價仍處于調(diào)整階段，但降幅將大為趨緩。目前很多開發(fā)商開始減少開發(fā)規(guī)模，并對2009年提出以銷定產(chǎn)的基本策略，同時地價和建材價格大幅下降，未來的開發(fā)成本將會下降。預(yù)計2009年已獲政策支持的開發(fā)商的資金壓力將有所減輕，促銷意愿依然強烈，但大幅降價沖動減弱。</p> <p>　　隨著新貨減少、余貨持續(xù)消化，成交價格表現(xiàn)仍將有所回落。同時，中心區(qū)的價格將較為堅挺，放貸新政的松綁亦可為其成交增長提供支撐；另一方面，外圍區(qū)域的供應(yīng)量大，2009年必然發(fā)力搶市場。同時隨著對新區(qū)認(rèn)同度較高、價格承受力偏低的首次置業(yè)剛性需求入市，外圍成交激活可能性較大，所以鑒于成交區(qū)域的原因亦可能拉低全市住房均價，成交均價將受中心城區(qū)與外圍區(qū)域成交比重變化影響而波動。</p> <p>　　2009年月度均價波動區(qū)間在8500~9500元/m2之間，2009年商品住宅需求的激活將在這個價格平臺展開。預(yù)計在2009年初，廣州樓價仍將處于一個尋底過程，成交平緩回暖，量價曲線逐漸靠攏，當(dāng)二者基本契合時，價格會趨于穩(wěn)定，置業(yè)需求將全面激活，下半年商品住宅成交量進(jìn)入穩(wěn)步上升期。</p> <p>　　繼12月17日國務(wù)院總理溫家寶主持召開的國務(wù)院常務(wù)會議發(fā)出了放松二套房貸和縮短二手營業(yè)稅免征年限的決議后，國務(wù)院辦公廳又于12月22日上午出臺了《關(guān)于促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)市場健康發(fā)展的若干意見》(以下簡稱《意見》)，這其實是對17日新政的細(xì)化。對購房者來說，二套房貸政策的松綁具有相當(dāng)?shù)摹绑@喜”。因為細(xì)化了的新政總算為改善型住房消費“正了名”。17日新政出臺時，讓業(yè)界普遍理解為“人均住房面積指標(biāo)的確立”只是撕開了二套房貸限制的一道口子，也是政府初步松綁來試探市場反應(yīng)，不過如今《意見》加上讓商業(yè)銀行按風(fēng)險自己確定的表態(tài)，顯然是二套房貸獲得了真正的松綁，甚至是購買第三、第四套房子都得到了全面的松綁。</p> <p>　　與此同時，《意見》不僅給開發(fā)企業(yè)以信心，也明確發(fā)出了鼓勵房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)“降價”的信息，并要求地方政府出面化解降價糾紛。不過，盡管中央在兩個月內(nèi)四次催谷房地產(chǎn)市場，但在對相關(guān)政策的理解上，普通民眾還有不少疑惑。在此，記者將對新政中出現(xiàn)的三大謎團——“二套房貸是否已經(jīng)徹底突破了？”、“對開發(fā)商的政策是否大轉(zhuǎn)向？”和“是否鼓勵房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)降價？”作出詳細(xì)分析，希望能夠幫助各位街坊盡量深入理解新政精神。(記者王荔玨、陳白帆) </div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="partner"></div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="editor">【<font color=CC0000>編輯:</font>高雪松】</div> <div class="49c1n6wlf" id="feeling"><iframe id='moodiframe' width="100%" scrolling="no" height="104" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" 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